I keep writing that everyone (read: the Professionals) are understating the potential Senate gains. I not only post that here, I tell everyone. And finally, there is a professional who agrees that the gains could be great, possibly even the magic number of 60. The professional in question is none other than Chuck Schumer. He of the 2006 gains. DCSS chair. Here's what he said:
"I know you'll ask me, can we get to sixty? And I'd say it's very difficult given the map, but its not out of the question. And I would have said the same thing two years ago... if you would have asked me [then] could we get six seats a hundred days before the election. I would have said it is very difficult but it's not out of the question."Politico/RCP call the Senator's pronouncement "irrational exuberance", but look at what Schumer said, then look at the little piece they chose to pull out of it.

In addition, the DSCC is backing things up with dollars: over $15 million in ad buys (so far) in North Carolina, New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine for the Senate races. Plus, the ad they put up in Oregon this week.

An announcement is expected Thursday for how tickets will be distributed for Barack Obama's acceptance speech at Invesco Field. - CBS4DenverAlso, DNC Chairman Howard Dean toured Pepsi Center today:
Dean thanked workers who are transforming the Pepsi Center for the delegates. He seemed pretty impressed with the progress. He told them it's amazing what they've done in just two weeks. With a little over a month to go, he admitted he is getting a little nervous.

"Thirty-three days to go and you're doing a great job, so I'm just going to keep biting my nails until the day this thing opens and in 33 days we'll all be standing with our hand over our heart, saluting the flag," Dean said. "I hope some of you will come because some of you will still be needed to be here to put the finishing touches on." - CBS4DenverDoonesbury looks at what McCain might have to go through if he chose to give his nomination speech at the Metrodome. Check out yesterday's strip and today's.

Somehow I don't think this will pack them in:
The White House has made it official: President Bush will address the Republican convention in St. Paul on its opening night, Labor Day — an appearance that could mean he will not cross paths with the party’s presidential nominee, Senator John McCain. - NY Times

As reported previously on DCW, Debra Bartoshevich, a current Wisconsin pledged delegate to the Democratic Convention, may lose her opportunity to attend.

This because true-PUMA Baroshevich has decided to vote for John McCain in November. The Wisconsin Democratic Party petitioned the DNC Credentials Committee to strip her of her status, and the Committee turned the decision back to the state party. There is an incredibly high probability that she will be stripped of her credentials.

Best quote:
"If they decide to strip me of my status, they decide to do something un-American," Bartoshevich said. "It’s not democracy. It doesn’t stand for unity, which the party wants."Um, it may just be me, but I don't understand how voting for a Republican encourages in any way Democratic Party unity.

Online Surveys & Market Research

A quick roundup of Democratic Convention news:

• Denver councilwoman questions Host Committe's use of Denver gas facilities, thereby avoiding state and federal gas taxes. Host Committee responds, and will pay the taxes.
  
• DNC Chair Howard Dean arrives in Denver on Wednesday to check out convention preparations.
• Cameron Moody, Deputy CEO for Outside the Hall Operations, writes at Huffington Post about preparations for the convention.
• First the GOP can't get enough volunteers for the convention. Now they can't get enough police officers.
• Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper thinks Denver will be ready.
• The convention will be streaming in hi-def.
• Atlanta looks back in fondness on their convention 20 years ago this week, which also helped them secure the 1996 Olympics. Funny, no mention of the nominee anywhere in the article...
  

Update 7/22: Latest projection: Obama leads 303-235, down 2 EVs from our previous forecast. For the first time since we've been tracking the forecast since early June, McCain has improved his position, led by gains in two projections each in Ohio and New Hampshire.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. NH moves from Obama to Tossup.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT - 150 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 58 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential ForecastState
EVsElect. Proj.Open LeftEV.
comFHQRCPRM538.comCNNNBC....Date

7/227/227/227/207/227/227/226/277/9
Obama-Strong (O)

200210207175153210210153168
Obama-Lean (OL)

8463354710263637842
Tossup (T)

831081151671203838113139
McCain-Lean (ML)

1017098586462676953
McCain-Strong (M)

7087839199165157125136
Obama Total

284273242222255273273231210
McCain Total

171157181149163227224194189
Obama Est.

329328312308307292288286282

Texas
34MLMLMLMLMLMMMM
Florida
27TTMLTTMLMLTT
Pennsylvania
21OLOLTTOLOLOLOLT
Ohio
20OLTTTTTTTT
Michigan
17OLOLOLTOLOLOLTT
Georgia
15MLMLMLMLMLMMMLML
New Jersey
15OOOOLOLOOOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTTTTMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTTTTTT
Indiana
11MLTTTTMMLMLML
Missouri
11TTTTTMLMLTT
Washington
11OOOOOLOOOLO
Arizona
10MLMLMMMMMMM
Minnesota
10OOOOOLOOOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOOOLOLOOOLOL
Colorado
9TOLTTTOLOLTT
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMMLM
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLTMMMMM
Iowa
7OLOLOOLOLOLOLTT
Oregon
7OOOLOLOLOOOLOL
Arkansas
6MLMMMMMMMLM
Mississippi
6MLMMLMLMLMMMM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLOLOLTOLOLMLT
W. Virginia
5MLMMLMMMMMLM
Maine
4OOOOOLOOOLO
NH
4OLOLTTTOLOLTT
Alaska
3MMLMLMLMLMMMML
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOO
Montana
3TTOLTMLMLMLMLML
N. Dakota
3MLTTTMLMLMMML
S. Dakota
3MLMTMMMLMMML


Elect. Proj.Open LeftEV.
comFHQRCPRM538.comCNNNBC....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Here are the states that span 3 categories.

• Alaska: Now only 1 at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong. Rasmussen's own poll shows McCain only up by 4, yet they still have AK as Likely-Republican, which we convert to McCain-Strong.
• Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
• Iowa: One at Obama-Strong, NBC and CNN still calling it a Tossup.
  
• Michigan: 1 Obama-Strong, 3 Tossups.
  
• Montana : EV.com at Obama-Lean, 5 at McCain-Lean. EV.com will exactly follow the latest poll if no other poll has been published within the week.
  
• New Hampshire: 4 at Tossup, 2 at Obama-Strong.
  
• New Mexico: Six projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. Two recent polls show Obama up by 3 and 8 points.
  
• North Dakota - Two at McCain Strong, 2 at tossup.
  
• South Carolina: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
• South Dakota: 1 Tossup, 5 McCain-Strong
  

We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

I know we normally only focus on the Democratic National Convention here at DemConWatch but this is just too good to pass up.

Back in August of 2006 Matt wrote about the possibility of holding one party's convention in Minneapolis' Target Center and the other in St.Paul's Xcel Energy Center.



Now snubbed former Republican Presidential Candidate Ron Paul and his supporters have decided to hold a party of their own across the river from the Republicans in beautiful downtown Minneapolis.

Not content with a planned rally at the University of Minnesota's Williams Arena on Sept. 2, the Paul forces now plan a three-day "Rally for the Republic" that will climax in a 10-hour extravaganza at the Target Center arena.

"It's getting exciting," said Marianne Stebbins, a longtime GOP activist who ran the Texas congressman's campaign in Minnesota. "We realized [Williams Arena] wasn't big enough for everything we wanted to do." - Strib

Yet another bad day for John McCain.

If you're coming to the convention and haven't found a room yet because you can't afford $1000/night rates, AirBed & Breakfast may be just what you're looking for.

There are currently 248 rooms available at prices ranging from $100/night to $3000/night (I think they missed the point)


Where else can you find a place less than 2 miles away from the Pepsi Center for $40/night?
The only downside is you have to sleep on the above couch and have to be home by midnight.

From the AP:

"In this city where John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton all made famous speeches, Obama will find himself stepping into perhaps another iconic moment Thursday as his superstar charisma meets German adoration live in shadows of the Reichstag and the Brandenburg Gate. He then travels to Paris and London where he can expect to be greeted with similar adulation.

It's not only Obama's youth, eloquence and energy that have stolen hearts across the Atlantic. For Europeans, there have always been two Americas: one of cynicism, big business and bullying aggression, another of freedom, fairness and nothing-is-impossible dynamism."

Will it matter to the polls?

Online Surveys & Market Research

During the primary season, we all learned that all Democratic members of Congress were automatically delegates to the Democratic National Convention. I think they were called superdelegates, or something like that?

Turns out the Republicans don't give their members of Congress the same privileges, and even the Senators have to fight for delegate slots. And one didn't make it:
Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa is among senators who had one of those celebrated blow-ups with Senator John McCain. But that is not the reason Mr. Grassley, the senior Republican from the state, will not be voting to nominate his colleague for the presidency at the upcoming Republican National Convention.

It will be because Mr. Grassley does not have a vote.

As disclosed over the weekend by columnist Bob Novak, Mr. Grassley was passed over to be a member of the state’s delegation to the convention by leaders of the state party, which is experiencing a rise in the influence of social conservatives. - NY TimesIf you're Grassley, given how your state party treated you, do you even bother going to St. Paul?

Sources close to Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign are suggesting he will reveal the name of his vice presidential selection this week while Sen. Barack Obama is getting the headlines on his foreign trip. The name of McCain's running mate has not been disclosed, but Mitt Romney has led the speculation recently. - ENPRSo McCain is playing his VP card to reduce the bounce Obama will get from his trip abroad. Any bounce McCain gets from this will be long gone by the time Obama announces.

Just make a contribution to the DCCC before August 11th and you'll receive an official entry to win flight, tickets and accommodation in Denver for the 2008 Democratic National Convention August 25th - 28th.

Click here to enter with a donation
or you can click here to enter without contributing

The Rules and Regulations are exactly what you'd expect from Congress...

• Winner shall be randomly selected from all eligible entries before August 22, 2008.
• The winners shall be notified by email on or before August 2, 2008
• Your entry must be submitted electronically to: http://www.dccc.org/convcontest1, and must include your name, mailing address, phone number, and email address.
• No purchase necessary. Contributing to the DCCC will not improve your chances of winning. You may enter the contest as many times as you like without a contribution by entering here.

So they say you can enter up until August 11th and the winner will be notified "before August 2nd" I'm wondering how they can notify the winner before the contest is over?

And if there's a typo and the winner will be notified on August 22nd... they won't have much time to pack. The flight leaves on August 24th.

Another rule says you have to submit your "name, mailing address, phone number, and email address" but if you go to the page where you don't have to donate, it only asks for your name, email address and zip code.

Good luck... tell us if you win!

Democrats Work is taking a lead role in making service an integral part of the Convention in Denver, by helping to coordinate a Delegate Service Day at service sites throughout the Denver metro area on Wednesday, August 27th. Projects will range from canned food sorting to neighborhood cleanups and tree plantings. These events will allow delegates to both contribute to and celebrate the people and organizations making positive change and strengthening communities in the city hosting this historic Convention. Good times!Democrats Work just sent an email asking for volunteers to help them on Delegate Service Day.
We need your help to make it happen. We are seeking volunteers to act as Event Hosts and Transportation Hosts for Delegate Service Day on Wednesday, August 27, from 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Volunteers will act as ambassadors of Colorado and of Democrats Work!
Event Hosts will be stationed at DW-sponsored events and will help make sure the event is a success (and that delegates get exposed to Democrats Work!). Event Hosts will be required to attend a brief training at the Democrats Work offices, 960 Cherokee Street, in Denver, on Tuesday, August 12th at 6:00 p.m. (A second training may be scheduled.)

Transportation Hosts will be asked to meet delegates at their hotels and escort them by light rail, on foot, or on busses to their designated service projects and to help manage the delegates once they arrive at their project site. Transportation Hosts will be required to attend one of two brief trainings at Volunteers of America, 2660 Larimer Street, in Denver, either on Thursday, August 14th at 6:00 p.m. or on Saturday August 16th at 9:00 a.m. And if you're lucky you may even meet Michelle Obama and Colorado First Lady Jeannie Ritter.
Building on its commitment to make service and active participation in the community a hallmark of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, the Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) announced today that Michelle Obama and Colorado First Lady Jeannie Ritter will co-chair the Democratic National Convention's Delegate Service Day, Wednesday, August 27. Through this effort, the DNCC will aim to inspire hundreds of thousands of Americans in a renewed commitment to service.

On August 27, the third day of Convention week, delegates from across the country will volunteer at dozens of community service projects in and around Denver, ranging from reading to children to park cleanup and tree care, to supporting projects that aid military families, an area of special focus for Michelle Obama. Delegate Service Day is the capstone to a year-long DNCC community service program, in which leadership and staff have contributed more than 650 hours to a variety of local projects.

"Barack and I have committed much of our lives to serving our communities, and throughout this campaign we've witnesses first hand the incredible change the American people can bring to the country when we work together for the common good. It's only fitting that we continue our focus on service at our Party's Convention in Denver," said Michelle Obama. "Not only will Delegate Service Day help give back to the city and the state hosting tens of thousands of Democrats, but it will send our delegates home with a renewed commitment to serving their communities and coming together as a nation to solve our great challenges. As Barack has often said, when ordinary people get together, we can do extraordinary things, and that's what will happen in Denver."

Every time Matt posts the most recent Senate numbers, I look at them, consider the sources, and wonder how to many of the professionals could be so far off from what makes more sense.

My analysis doesn’t even start from the same gate, as all the professionals begin with a current Senate split of 51 – 49. I start with 50 – 50, since there appears to be no rational reason to consider someone who has endorsed John McCain, would like to speak at the GOP convention, will be speaking at the Hagee Convention, and is fundamentally opposed to Democratic principles an actual Democrat.

While you may think this is a minor point, Traitor Joe remains a “Caucus-with-the-Democrats” person because that ensures that the Democrats hold the committee chairs and all the other benefits of being the party in power. There are rumours which point to Joe being ousted from the caucus in January, when the majority will definitely be greater.

This matters because when you read the Senate projections for 538, EV, OpenLeft, Crystal Ball, Cook, SSP, CQ and Rothenberg, they are starting AT 51, which will yield a different total when Joe becomes an official Republican. Therefore, when you read that “Senate Projection” line in the DCW Senate Forecast Table, subtract one, unless you think that Joe Lieberman will still be a Democrat in 2009. In the Senate, a single seat matters, and getting to 61 in 2010 really matters. So, when we look at a forecast of 54 versus 58, it’s a bigger deal than “plus four” might indicate numerically.

When you look at the professional projections, with only rare exceptions, they give every possible tilt to the Republican side. Even Chris Bowers at OpenLeft. While no one who has ever read him, spoken with him, or met with him would consider him right wing, even he calls the Oregon race “Lean Republican.” Now, my projection is much higher: I am convinced the Democrats can pick up a minimum of 8 seats (for a total of 58, not 59).

So the question becomes, why would the professionals understate potential 2008 Democratic gains?

1. Professionals Are Professionals

All professionals need to believe that what they are doing is right, and that what makes them “experts” is that they have been correct in the past, and they know “how these things go.”

Example: if you wrench your back and you go to your chiropractor, he/she will adjust you. If you go to your GP/Internist he/she will give you muscle relaxers, if you go to an orthopedic surgeon, he/she will give you a battery of tests to ascertain if you are a surgical candidate. This is what each knows, and believes in.

Political professionals believe that they need to look at historic trends, look at polls, and rely on their gut instincts, honed on years of practice. “Yeah but….” They have a vested interest in being conservative in their projections. If you understate something and it comes out better, you win “closest without going over”, if you overstate, you ramp up expectations, perhaps with dire results. If you hit dead on, you’re a genius.

To do anything else would be to deny what they know. Therefore, in a transformational year, they may not be as willing to look at new trends.

2. Professionals Are People, Too

People have opinions, and people often see what they want to see. Two people can look at the same thing, SEE the same thing, and have two completely different takes on it.

While I’ve been assured that Charlie Cook is middle-of-the-road and non-partisan, I read his most recent National Journal article and read the tone as one of “Woe be to the Republicans, how sad, how sad.” Does that affect the fact that he (along with CQ Politics and Rothenberg) calls Colorado a toss-up when there is not one shred of data that indicates anything other than a Democratic win? I don’t know. I look at a 2:1 money advantage and being up by 9 in the polls as a pretty solid Democratic win for Mark Udall. I might even understand if Cook put it in the “Democratic Lean” column because it’s an open seat – but toss-up?

And what about North Carolina? On my white board, I have it as a toss-up that will go Democratic Lean by the end of summer, and is a likely pick-up by early October. The professionals have it as Republican to Republican Lean. They have access to the same data I do (probably more data) and for some reason they are ignoring the $7.5 million the DNC is pouring into the race, and the fact that Liddy Dole has been burning through cash.

The professionals are probably relying on polls which indicate that 25% of Democrats voting for Obama will cross over and vote for Dole. It doesn’t seem to make sense that so high a percentage of cross-over will be able to survive the coming onslaught of ads and attention.

3. Base Data Can Be Faulty

We all rely on data. And that data is not always so great. Last week, ABC/Washington Post issued polling data with a prime directive of McCain being a better Commander in Chief than Obama. “Yeah, but...” they neglected to print the part of the poll indicating Obama was up 8 points overall over McCain. Had they released all at once, the frame of the conversation would have been “Obama up by 8”, not the Commander in Chief frame.

And this begs the question of how polls are undertaken. Does one push or accept “Don’t Know?” as an answer. Are polls automated or human? What is the order of the responses? Does the order vary? This and many other parameters feed into the poll outcomes, not to mention who is paying for the poll, and what they are endeavoring to ascertain.

There is new info on cell phone polling, wherein Pew postulates that it is statistically insignificant to count cell phones as it raised Obama from +5 over McCain to +8. That IS a difference. And if you read the comments over at Pollster’s review of the article, you’ll see that some other non-professionals think the difference could be even greater.

Will the cell phone differential make a difference to the Senate race? Not necessarily directly, as there is a higher probability that the Obama campaign is attracting younger (read: more likely to be cell only, or cell mostly) voters than Senate competitors. However, in the 17 states with party voting, it could be all the difference in the Senate races.

4. What Does This Mean For The Numbers?

It means that: there is no Republican lean in Alaska nor Oregon; Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia are done-deal Democratic pick-ups: and Maine and North Carolina are much closer to “Toss-Up” than “Republican”.

So, for me, it is a direct +4 pick-up for the Udall closest to you in both Colorado and New Mexico, Warner in Virginia, and Shaheen in New Hampshire. The rest of my 58 come from 4 of the following (from most likely to least likely): Begich in Alaska, Merkley in Oregon, Allen in Maine, Hagan in North Carolina, Franken in Minnesota, Lunsford in Kentucky and Noriega in Texas.

From Colorado Independent:

The U.S. Army and Colorado National Guard have announced intentions to reserve more than 500 hotel rooms for lodging during the Democratic National Convention, hinting at the number of military personnel that may be in Denver for the high-profile event that is expected to draw an estimated 50,000 protesters.

While the Democratic convention is being held on Aug 25-28, officials with the Colorado National Guard are seeking to reserve 438 rooms for Aug. 22-30 and 78 rooms for Aug. 18-30 according to award announcements published Friday on the Federal Business Opportunities Web site, a page run by the federal government for business contract solicitations.

The documents show that majority of guard personnel staying from Aug. 22-30 are set to lodge at Johnson & Wales University, located on 7150 Montview Blvd in far east Denver, while 32 rooms will be rented out for an unknown Extended Stay America location in Denver.

Johnson & Wales University

View Larger Map

Drury Inn

View Larger Map

Maps are provided to show proximity to downtown Denver.

There was a post up on DCW about the bags that will be handed out at the convention. There were a lot of comments on it, and the tone of many of these comments indicated surprise about the level of corporate sponsorship at the Convention.

I found this surprising because "corporate sponsorship" pervades our daily lives: who pays for the uniforms for your local softball teams? Ever notice product placement in TV shows?

The issue about sponsorship is that money begets access.

The Obama campaign is doing something different this year, something that is a big part of the convention, something which indicates true change to the political process.

At every national political convention, in addition to formally naming the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, a platform is written. That platform defines the goals of the party, and what the party wants to accomplish over the following four years. Behind the speeches and the rhetoric and the parties and the chum is that set of pages which say: "THIS IS WHAT WE STAND FOR"
Normally, this is done by the party and foisted on the public. This year, you can contribute to the process, and make your voice heard. Over the next two weeks, public meetings (free of corporate sponsorship) will be held across the land. You can attend and say "this is what I think about Iraq, FISA, abortion, minimum wage, etc., etc., etc." Find your local meeting-place here.

Information will be collected, tallied, and presented to the DNC Platform Committee. In case you are interested, this is what we stand for now.

DCW Senate Forecast: 55.8 (up from 55.6), highlighted by SSP and Cook moving NM and OR in the Democrats direction. The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:

DCW Senate ForecastState
Current538.comEV.comOpenLeftCrystal BallCookSSPCQRothenberg....Date

7/197/197/176/187/177/196/185/20
Dem

1613141212131212
Dem-Lean

02242322
Tossup

24226043
Rep-Lean

54342532
Rep

1212141313141416
Dem-Prediction

1817171717161616
Dem '10/'12 Seats

3939393939393939
Senate Projection

5756565656555555
Dem-Gain

65555444

AK (Stevens)
RTTTTTRLRLRL
CO (Open)
RDDLDDLTDLTT
GA (Chambliss)
RRRLRRRRRR
KY (McConnell)
RRLTRLRRRRR
LA (Landrieu)
DDTDLDLDLDLDLT
ME (Collins)
RRLRLRRLRLRRLR
MN (Coleman)
RRLRLRLRLTRLTT
MS (Wicker)
RTTTTTRLTR
NC (Dole)
RRRRRLRLRLRR
NH (Sununu)
RDDDDLTDLTDL
NJ (Lautenberg)
DDDLDLDDDDD
NM (Open)
RDDDDLDLDDLDL
OR (Smith)
RRLRLRLRLTRLRLRL
VA (Open)
RDDDDDDDD









































Here are the seats that span 3 categories:

• CO - Two projections have it as strong D, 3 as Tossup. Udall is up by 9 or more points in all polls since June.
  
• KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
• LA (Landrieu) (NEW): 1 at Dem-Strong, 2 at Tossup
  
• MS (Wicker): Rothenberg has it as a "Clear Advantage" for Wicker, but Rasmussen's poll out on 6/24 shows Wicker with a 1 point lead.
  
• NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
  
• NM (Open): Cook, who hasn't updated since May 23, has it as a Tossup. Udall has led by 15 points or more in all polls since Mid-May. Cook moved it to DL.
  

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

As someone who got his start in College Democrats, I'm all for getting young people involved in the political process. But will a "Superdelegate" branded tee have the same impact on the high school crowd as "Hollister?" Hmm...jury still out. Me thinks that if we see any kids wearing these shirts, it'll be the set who are too young to read what they are wearing or who are unable to change clothes when Mom isn't looking.

Either way, still more appealing than the Wonder Woman shirts.

The first Northern California Peek store recently opened in a sensible spot to sell luxury children's wear - the Corte Madera Village mall, where $600 strollers abound. There are four other Peek boutiques in Southern California and Arizona.

Inside the store, there are '60s-inspired sundresses, Liberty print skirts, surfer-dude board shorts, rugby shirts, cotton twill khakis and button-downs, Western shirts, jeans, batik and camouflage prints, retro Minnetonka moccasins, peace sign T-shirts and T-shirts emblazoned with political messages, such as "Brown vs. Board of Education" and "Superdelegate."

For fall, says Amy Williams, there will be "Electoral College" T-shirts and presidential "football jerseys" with the name of a president and his "number" - i.e., Washington 1, Lincoln 16.

Original article found here.

The NY Times magazine has a long profile of 2008 Democratic National Convention CEO Leah Daughtry. Daughtry is a part-time Pentecostal preacher, and is key in the efforts of the Democratic party to increase its appeal to people of faith:
Daughtry is a part-time preacher and full-time political operative. She serves as chief of staff to Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. In the spring of last year, Dean appointed her chief executive of the party’s convention; though she will now be collaborating with Barack Obama’s team, she is in charge of orchestrating the event next month in Denver — of making sure that everything runs right, that buses have enough slots to park in, that people have enough hotel rooms to sleep in and that the millions watching the convention on TV are captivated and inspired by the four-day-long show. She is a mostly self-effacing manager on an immense scale.

But on many Sundays she is a Pentecostal preacher with her toes naked on the floor and her voice filled with a power that she says is not her own. Straight from the start of her sermon on a Sunday afternoon in June, she looked nearly helpless, beyond self-management, truly overcome by a force coursing through her; she wiped tears from her eyes with a small square of white cloth.

In her positions as Dean’s top aid and the convention’s top official, Daughtry, who is 44 years old, is leading the Democratic Party’s new mission to make religious believers — particularly ardent Christian believers — view the party and its candidates as receptive to, and often impelled by, the dictates of faith.

The quarterlies are out, and as expected, there are some interesting numbers in how much money was raised, or not raised, since the beginning of April. All financial data, unless otherwise noted, comes from the FEC filing forms.

Remember that winners attract money. You can see that most clearly in races that are not really contested. So, for example, in Iowa, Tom Harkin (D) will easily retain his seat. He raised $632,945 2nd quarter, for total cash on hand of over $4 million, compared to his challenger Reed (R) who raised $11,765, for remaining cash on hand of $293. You can’t send out a Christmas Card mailing for $300. While not all disparities are so vast, they certainly exist in the races that are considered safe.

North to Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens (R) only raised $745,079 to Mark Begich’s (D) $1,034,660. While Stevens still has double the amount of cash on hand ($1.6 million to about $800,000) this is a trend which should not be overlooked. It’s also reflected in the polls, with the latest showing Begich slightly ahead 47 – 45 (Research 2000). Yes, the polls do indicate slight slippage in some polls, but everything is still in the margin of error, and this is ALASKA, where Ted Stevens has held this seat since 1968.

Over in Colorado, Mark Udall (D) continues his march to victory, having raised $2,038,611 to Bob Schaffer’s (R) $1,431,545, giving him a 2:1 cash on hand lead: $3.9 million to $2.8 million. Udall is still up by over 9 points, and there is no reason to believe anything other than “Democratic pick-up” as we’ve been saying all along.

In the Blue Grass state of Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford (D) picked up $3,098,486 to Mitch McConnell’s (R) $3,021,500. Now there is still a huge cash on hand disparity, since McConnell has about $9 million to Lunsford’s $1.3 million. But this is remarkable in a race that all the CW called safe for McConnell at the outset. The polls still show McConnell up by about 7 BUT he won his last re-election by 30 points, so this is not a good trend.

Down in Louisiana, Mary Landrieu (D) collected slightly more than her challenger (it’s so weird to write “John Kennedy” and then stick and “R” after it – kind of like violating a law of nature); $1,541,109 to $1,457,641. But she still leads cash on hand $5.5 million to $2.7 million. She’s up in the polls, and the most interesting cross tab is that only 67% of McCain voters plan to vote for Kennedy, despite McCain’s growing lead over Obama in Louisiana.

The money raise in Maine is phenomenal. While the overall numbers put Susan Collins (R) ahead $1,056,109 to Tom Allen’s (D) $1,000,625, and have her leading cash on hand $5.1 million to $3.1 million, it’s interesting to note where the money has been coming from. Open Secrets only has numbers through May for this race, but look at this: through 21 May, Collins raised $3.4 million from individual donors and $2 million from PACs, while Allen raised $3.3 million from individual donors and a little under $400k from PACs. Call me crazy, but I think individual donors tend more to be local and vote, and PACs tend to be more national and don’t vote. Most recent poll has Collins up by 10 down from up 25 last month.

In Minnesota, Al Franken (D) raised $2,336,940 to Norm Coleman’s (R) $2,389,866. Sure, Coleman still has a cash advantage of $7.2 million to $4.2 million, but if he were a shoe-in the disparity would have grown, and it shrunk from a $3.5 million lead to a $3 million lead. Again, Coleman takes a lot of PAC money. Expect to see new polling in the not too distant future since Jesse Ventura decided against running. Most recent poll shows Franken ahead, but within the margin of error.

Back down south to Mississippi, where in the “A” race, Cochran (R) has $1.1 million cash on hand, and his challenger didn’t even bother filing. However, in the more interesting “B” race, Roger Wicker (R) raised $1,049,864 to Ronnie Musgrove’s $820,747. The polls are too close to call.

In New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen (D) bested John Sununu (R), raising $1,630,172 to $1,135,364. He still wins in cash on hand $5.1 million to $2.1 million, but again, Shaheen has won every poll in the past year (except for one ARG poll last December) with an average lead of 12.5 points. Democratic pick-up!

Back over to New Mexico, another pick-up state. (Remember, "Vote for the Udall Closest to You!") Tom Udall (D) raised $2,167,762 to Steve Pearce’s $1,208,980, giving him a cash on hand lead of $2.8 million to about $500k. Plus, he’s up by over 20 points, and the lead keeps growing. As I’ve said previously, I don’t know why anyone would consider this a contested state.

Up the left coast to Oregon. The CW was saying “red”, and I didn’t get that, since I was (and am) convinced we win this one. Seems a lot of donors agree with me, giving $1,913,421 to Jeff Merkley (D) and only $1,332,031 to Gordon Smith (R). Smith still hold a vast cash on hand lead, $4.4 million to $570k but the trend is there. This is a HUGE turnaround when you consider that at the end of first quarter, Smith had taken in a total of $5.8 million to Merkley’s $1.3 million. Most recent polling shows a dead heat.

In Virginia, there is not even a contest: Mark Warner (D) raised almost $3 million to Jim Gilmore’s (R) half a million, leading to a cash on hand disparity of $5 million to $116,770. No surprises here.

There are two additional races I’d like to mention that don’t get enough air time: Texas and North Carolina. First, in Texas, yes, John Cornyn (R) raised $1,697,387 to Rick Noriega’s $966,070 and has a 10:1 cash on hand advantage: $9.1 million to about $900,000. Rasmussen indicates that Cornyn is polling below 50%, although still winning. However, the Texas Lyceum poll has the race at even. No reason to be anything other than hopeful.

And finally, we come to North Carolina. I mentioned a month ago that there could be money problems, and that was when Liddy Dole (R) had raised $9.5 million, with $3.1 million cash on hand to the end of the first quarter, to Kay Hagan’s (D) $1.5 million raised, with $317,311 cash on hand. Well, well, Dole raised $1,690,387 second quarter, and Hagan raised $1,537,748. Cash on hand leaves Dole with $2.7 million to Hagans’s $1.2 million. But that’s not the end of it. The DNC has committed $6.5 million for NC ads, and another million for polling. Talk about evening out the playing field.

If you haven’t noticed, all the Democrats cited have links to their home pages. Makes it easy to find out all about the candidates, and REALLY EASY when you’re there to make a contribution.